Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Fantasy Golf: Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview

Arguably the chalkiest pick you will make all year is Hideki Matsuyama this week but you will choose him or spend four days ruing the error of your ways. I know this is blasphemous but Hideki at TPC Scottsdale is the modern equivalent of vintage Tiger Woods at Bay Hill and Firestone and um Torrey Pines (holy shit who wins eight times on three different golf courses?!?). Before having to withdraw last year with a bum wrist, Hideki had an epic run in the dessert that went a little something like T4, T2, win and win. Is that something I could interest you in? 

Behind Hideki you have a slew of mid-range to borderline great players who regularly kick-ass at TPC Boozedale. Phil Mickelson has won this thing three times, most recently in 2013 when he lipped-out a putt for a first round 59 after which I got into a Twitter feud with some dopey stuffed Pickering shirt golf writer because I said there was no doubt the crowd would have stormed the green if he had made that putt. Of course we'll never really know but I was right. 

Rickie Fowler thrives in the Waste Management's low stress/high glitz environment and he is absolutely going to win this tournament someday sparking a bunch of mindless chatter about whether that will be the year he wins his first major which will be a waste of everyone's time because he's going to win the 2023 British Open. I'm giving him the slight nod over Matt Kuchar in the $9,000-$9,500 range but, unlike that stone cold lock British Open prediction, it's nothing more than a hunch because Kuch is playing lights-out and can't wait to stiff some waiters and valets this week heyoooo.   

Then you have your supporting cast of Daniel Berger, Martin Laird and Brendan Steele. At least two of those three is going to finish in the top ten. Beyond that, here are three other things you need to know that you cannot glean from the Norelco Past Performance Chart below.
  • J.B. Holmes won here twice (2006 and 2008) so the trend over the last eleven years has definitely been in favor of the long ball guys (Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland, etc.) but Mark Wilson and Hunter Mahan have also won it and the list of runner-ups is peppered with course managers like Chez Reavie, Webb Simpson, Ben Crane and Jason Dufner so a young guy who hits a lot of fairways like Abraham Ancer or Austin Cook is going to be a factor. I'm going with Ancer this week because I've been going with Ancer just about every week and sooner or later he's going to payoff.  
  • The Euros struggle in this environment. Not that a lot of them play in Arizona because they're all terrified of snakes (it's true) but, since 2005 only Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, Padraig Harrington and Freddie Jacobson have posted top tens here. You'd think they'd revel in the boisterous environment considering how well they play in the Ryder Cup but maybe they need it to be more musical and choreographed like this fiasco. It's probably going to take a visit from Eddie Pepperell to get them a win here. 
  • I played this a few years ago and actually shot -2 on the front (yeah which tees?) before coming back to Earth on the back and finishing +3 because the guys I was playing with were a bunch of resort golfer hacks in the ugliest shirts you can possibly imagine (nope, worse than that). Anyway, that makes me kind of an expert so bet big.

They had the stands built when I played the
16th hole so I closed my eyes and imagined
the crowd. Then I choked and made a bogey.
One and Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

Other Guy I'd Pick: Phil Mickelson

Sleeper Pick: Bud Cauley

DraftKings Top Ten Values

Hideki Matsuyama
$10,700
Webb Simpson
$9,700
Rickie Fowler
$9,400
Phil Mickelson
$9,300
Daniel Berger
$8,200
Abraham Ancer
$7,700
Martin Laird
$7,600
Brendan Steele
$7,400
Bud Cauley
$6,900
Harris English
$6,900

And here is every player I even remotely considered. Picking the six or seven top values on this course is easy. It's the next three that will fuck you up so I studied a lot of game film before settling on Ancer, Cauley and English.

                    THE NORELCO PAST PERFORMANCE CHART


DK Price
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Jon Rahm
$11,500
T11
T16
DNP
T5
DNP
Justin Thomas
$11,000
T17
MC
MC
T17
DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
$10,700
W/D
1st
1st
T2
T4
Xander Schauffele
$10,100
T17
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Gary Woodland
$9,900
1st
MC
T33
MC
T37
Webb Simpson
$9,700
MC
2nd
T14
DNP
10th
Tony Finau
$9,500
MC
MC
MC
T22
DNP
Rickie Fowler
$9,400
T11
T4
2nd
T46
MC
Phil Mickelson
$9,300
T5
T16
T11
MC
T42
Matt Kuchar
$9,200
T5
T9
DNP
T30
DNP
Cameron Smith
$9,100
T48
T42
MC
DNP
DNP
Adam Hadwin
$9,000
T43
T12
T17
MC
DNP
Bubba Watson
$8,900
T40
MC
T14
T2
T2
Billy Horschel
$8,800
T43
T24
T24
T30
MC
Chez Reavie
$8,700
2nd
MC
MC
MC
DNP
Byeon Hun An
$8,600
T23
6th
DNP
DNP
DNP
Andrew Putnam
$8,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Alex Noren
$8,400
T21
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Cameron Champ
$8,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Daniel Berger
$8,200
T11
T7
T58
T10
DNP
Brandt Snedeker
$8,100
T23
DNP
T33
T10
T61
Luke List
$8,000
T26
MC
MC
DNP
DNP
Austin Cook
$7,900
T31
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tyrrell Hatton
$7,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Keegan Bradley
$7,800
T43
MC
T24
T17
MC
Zach Johnson
$7,800
T57
T12
T14
T10
DNP
Abraham Ancer
$7,700
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ryan Palmer
$7,700
MC
MC
T24
T2
T48
Emiliano Grillo
$7,600
T57
T63
T45
DNP
DNP
J.B. Holmes
$7,600
MC
T24
T6
T66
T58
Martin Laird
$7,600
T9
T7
T41
T5
T19
Kyle Stanley
$7,500
MC
T36
T45
MC
MC
Si Woo Kim
$7,500
T62
MC
T67
DNP
DNP
Brendan Steele
$7,400
T3
T16
T17
T26
T6
Jason Kokrak
$7,300
T31
MC
MC
T40
T15
Kevin Na
$7,200
T48
T16
T24
T26
T19
Ryan Moore
$7,200
MC
T61
T11
T17
T6
Beau Hossler
$7,100
T17
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Bill Haas
$7,100
T26
DNP
DNP
76
T34
Chesson Hadley
$7,100
T5
DNP
T60
MC
DNP
J.J. Spaun
$7,100
W/D
T4
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Tway
$7,100
T57
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
Sam Burns
$7,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Bud Cauley
$6,900
MC
T47
DNP
DNP
DNP
Charley Hoffman
$6,900
T26
T24
T51
T53
T61
Harris English
$6,900
MC
T57
3rd
T40
9th
Peter Uihlein
$6,800
MC
MC
T17
DNP
DNP
Brian Gay
$6,700
T9
T47
64th
DNP
T61
Ollie Schnieds
$6,700
T3
T24
DNP
DNP
DNP
James Hahn
$6,400
T11
MC
T17
T59
MC

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

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