Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Fantasy Golf: Sony Open

Hey remember last week when I picked Brooks Koepka but also wrote that "if you're the kind of person who doesn't like to throw a big chip on the pile this early in the season, then take a look at Xander Schauffele or Marc Leishman"? Right um so it turns-out that I am that kind of person which means I picked Schauffele and for the first time in my checkered fantasy golf career I am actually leading a one and done league. Of course that's basically like placing one chip on the board after the first call of a bingo tournament but it sure as hell beats wasting Brooks Koepka on a $78,000 payday (sorry . . . not really).

Yes more scenery. If you don't
like it, go buy a copy of Maxim.
Now the pressure is on to keep it going and frankly my prognosticating record at the Sony Open ain't the best in the Navy (loose Top Gun reference . . . please try to keep up). Last year I picked Marc Leishman who had just finished tied for 7th at the Tournament of Champions and I can still hear Frank Nobilo, "ooh he's such a strong wind player being from Australia." Oh shut-up Frank. All that wind experience yielded was a T47 and a check for $15,925 while the first place trophy went to a kid from Montgomery, Alabama where a cat fart rates as a stiff breeze.

The year before that I picked Jimmy Walker who won this tournament in 2014 and 2015 before finishing a respectable T13 in 2016. He had just finished T9 at the TOC so I was feeling supremely confident. He proceeded to miss the fucking cut. And back in 2016 Matt Kuchar did me the courtesy of finishing T13 but only after shooting one of the three worst final round scores of anyone in the top 30 so pffffft . . . what could have been.    

Well that shit stops now. This tournament should be a damn turkey shoot considering the same guys have been contending for the last fifteen years. You can see some of that consistency in the chart below with the likes of Kuchar, Walker, Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland, Kevin Kisner, Charles Howell, III, Zach Johnson, Hudson Swafford and yes, the awesomely irascible Jerry Kelly but that doesn't begin to tell the story. If you scroll through the history of this event on the PGATour.com tournament page, you will see Chucky Triple Sticks in the top ten about a dozen times along with multiple showings by Kuch, Z.J. and Kelly. The bottom line is that Waialae is a horse for the course type track along the lines of TPC River Highlands and Harbour Town so don't get cute and try to pick the next Fabian Gomez. Stick to the damn fundamentals. That's how great companies like Lehman Brothers and Enron were built. 

That makes the two obvious choices 2017 champion Justin Thomas who just finished 3rd at the TOC and last week's runner-up Gary Woodland who has gone T7, T6, T13 and T3 at the Sony over the last four years. If you want to play it safe, go with Chucky but I'd be wary of Z.J. who's recent T7 at the RSM Classic was his first top ten since April. I'd be more inclined to take a flyer on Kuchar or maybe Cameron Smith who just won the Australian PGA Championship over Leishman. Because you really want a good wind player and it's very windy in Australia. Or so they say.    

Like this one which is
apparently all about golf.
One and Done Pick: Gary Woodland

Other Guy I'd Pick: Charles Howell, III

Sleeper Pick: Jimmy Walker


DraftKings Top Ten Values

Justin Thomas
$11,400
Gary Woodland
$10,800
Cameron Smith
$9,400
Charles Howell, III
$8,900
Zach Johnson
$8,600
Patton Kizzire
$7,900
Chez Reavie
$7,600
Jimmy Walker
$7,400
Ryan Blaum
$7,100
Jerry Kelly
$7,100

Here is the list of every player I thought about picking this week. It includes most of the big names but not Bubba Watson who's second round 79 last week would indicate that he's in that bad Bubba place. You don't want Bubba when he's in the bad Bubba place.      

DK Price
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Justin Thomas
$11,400
T14
1st
MC
T6
DNP
B. DeChambeau
$11,100
DNP
T49
DNP
DNP
DNP
Gary Woodland
$10,800
T7
T6
T13
T3
DNP
Marc Leishman
$10,500
T47
T20
T28
T37
5th
Jordan Spieth
$10,300
T18
3rd
DNP
DNP
MC
Cameron Champ
$9,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Reed
$9,600
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Cameron Smith
$9,400
T18
T27
T81
DNP
DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
$9,300
DNP
T27
DNP
T78
DNP
Emiliano Grillo
$9,200
T47
DNP
T33
DNP
DNP
Paul Casey
$9,100
DNP
MC
DNP
T30
DNP
Kevin Kisner
$9,000
T25
T4
T5
84th
MC
Charles Howell, III
$8,900
T32
T8
T13
T26
T8
Kyle Stanley
$8,700
T10
T36
T13
DNP
DNP
Zach Johnson
$8,600
T14
T6
T9
T64
T8
Matt Kuchar
$8,500
DNP
DNP
T13
T3
T8
Adam Scott
$8,300
DNP
DNP
T56
DNP
T8
Brandt Snedeker
$8,200
DNP
MC
2nd
DNP
DNP
Russell Knox
$8,100
T10
T11
MC
T13
MC
Si Woo Kim
$8,000
T58
DNP
4th
DNP
DNP
Brian Harman
$7,900
T4
T20
T13
T13
T32
Patton Kizzire
$7,900
1st
DNP
MC
DNP
DNP
Ian Poulter
$7,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Pat Perez
$7,700
DNP
T69
T81
T17
DNP
Chez Reavie
$7,600
T18
T8
T42
T26
DNP
Scott Piercy
$7,600
T25
T57
DNP
2nd
MC
Danny Lee
$7,400
MC
DNP
T33
MC
MC
Jimmy Walker
$7,400
MC
MC
T13
1st
1st
Patrick Rodgers
$7,400
W/D
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Brian Gay
$7,300
T58
T13
MC
DNP
T32
James Hahn
$7,300
2nd
T36
T28
T26
T46
Jamie Lovemark
$7,300
MC
T4
T7
DNP
MC
Stewart Cink
$7,300
T32
T36
T42
T37
T20
Ryan Armour
$7,200
T39
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jason Dufner
$7,100
T18
MC
T9
DNP
T29
Jerry Kelly
$7,100
T14
MC
T9
T6
3rd
Ryan Blaum
$7,100
T10
T74
DNP
DNP
DNP
Ben Martin
$7,000
T7
T36
T50
T51
T38
Hudson Swafford
$7,000
T54
T13
T9
MC
T8
Ollie Schneids
$6,900
T7
T27
DNP
DNP
DNP

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.
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