Saturday, November 24, 2018

The FGR's Week 12 NFL Picks

[Brent Musberger voice] "You are looking live at the FGR on Thanksgiving Day jammed into a small beach house surrounded by kids on a 30 degree day funneling coffee in an effort to stave-off the first cocktail for the good of all of those involved." (Good luck with that). By the time I post this, we'll have some early returns on my new gambling strategy though I'm off to a bad start considering I had no idea that Mitch Trubisky was in jeopardy of not starting. If there was only a place to find this kind of information. I'm always the last to know. 

[Fast forward twenty-six hours] Now we're live on Friday afternoon and my marriage is still intact but, more importantly, the new process for picking games has yielded a 2-0-1 start to the week. More of that please.

Shit. Santa costumes. Time
to get the fucking tree.
Jacksonville by 3 at Buffalo: The Pick - Jags

The Bills have to be in the midst of one of the more bizarre seasons in NFL history. They've started four different quarterbacks and lost seven games by an average of almost 24 points per game. On the other hand, they've won three games by an average of almost 18 points per game. It's time for another blowout loss so I'm betting on the chance that the Jags' defense still has some shred of pride over the chance that Josh Allen magically comes back from injury to become something more than a 54% passer with a 2-5 touchdown to interception ratio. But it's close.   

Baltimore by 10.5 over Oakland: The Pick - Ravens

The Ravens have won five games this year by an average of 18.6 points so at least when they show-up they really show-up. They also have a history of smoking teams that have to fly-in from the west coast to play at 1:00 p.m. due to the travel, the time change and that nagging palpable feeling shared by every visitor to Baltimore that you're about to get murdered and buried in the walls of an abandoned house.

Tampa Bay by 3.5 over San Fran: The Pick - 49ers

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter is learning the hard way that a team that has two starting quarterbacks has no starting quarterbacks. He's about to learn the hard way that a head coach with two starting quarterbacks has no job.

Philly by 6 over the N.Y. Giants: The Pick - Giants

Don't look now but the Giants have a two game winning streak and are currently only two games out of the division lead in the lost column. At this point you can count on Eli to win enough games to keep his starting job for another year and drive dozens of Giants fans to swan dive off the Verrezano Bridge. Meanwhile the Eagles are playing like they just ran through a cloud of Roman Red.



Cincinnati by 3 over Cleveland: The Pick - Bengals

At 3-6-1 with a new head coach on the way the Browns' season has already been a resounding success. The only thing they haven't been able to pull-off is a road win. That will have to wait until week 17 when they go to Baltimore and beat the Ravens to knock them out of the playoffs. (We don't think it's coming . . . we know it's coming).  

New England by 10 at the N.Y. Jets: The Pick - Jets

There's really no good reason to believe that the Jets could cover any number against the Patriots but they do have two things going for them: (1) Double-digit home dogs have a solid history of covering and picking them is like splitting aces; and (2) They haven't covered in their last four games so they are way overdue. On the other hand, they've benched their quarterback of the future and the team appears to have quit on coach Todd Bowles. You know what? I can't do it. I just can't. (STICK TO THE PROCESS!!!) FINE. I'm picking the Jets. I feel nauseous. 

Carolina by 3.5 over Seattle: The Pick - Seahawks

I just found the free live feed of the Tiger/Phil match and I now have it playing in the background so if you start to detect a noticeable uptick in shitty writing, you can thank the inane commentary of Peter Jacobsen. Studies have shown that the sound of his voice drains IQ points like a sump pump. I don't really have a segue to football from there so . . . the Panthers have hit a rocky patch while the Seahawks have been battling through one of the league's toughest schedules with losses to the Bears, Chargers and Rams (twice). This is me trying to do a stunt man jump from the crumbling Falcons bandwagon to the slightly more stable Seahawks bandwagon.   

Indy by 8.5 over Miami: The Pick - Dolphins

I'm still a Colts doubter because their four game winning streak has come against teams with a combined record of 13-27. The Dolphins don't necessarily represent a significant upgrade in competition but they do seem to have a penchant for making games ugly. I'm not sure how else to defend this pick but the process has spoken. Picking the Dolphins is like ordering plain oatmeal for breakfast.  

"STOP SAYING THAT!!!"
L.A. by 12 over Arizona: The Pick - Chargers

I don't know whether the QBR stat is worth a crap but it can't be good that Josh Rosen has the worst rating of any quarterback with enough pass attempts to qualify. And blowing-out the Cardinals is all part of the Chargers' plan to get half the dopes on ESPN to say "this team is different" before they lose 17-14 at Houston in the first round of the playoffs.

Pittsburgh by 3 at Denver: The Pick - Steelers

The Steelers are in a different class than the Broncos right now so, even if you give Denver a little extra love because the game is being played at altitude and you factor in Ben Roethlisberger's tendency to drop steaming turds on the road, I think you still have to give the points here. Even in a season when the refs are doing everything but giving quarterbacks credit for completions on passes that were "close enough", Case Keenum is still only good for 11 touchdowns, 10 picks and a quarterback rating of 83.4 which puts him behind Blake Bortles. Enough said. 

Minnesota by 3 over Green Bay: The Pick - Vikings

Two teams vying for the title of most underwhelming performance of 2018. The loser of this game is probably toast, especially if it's the Packers who have gotten very creative in finding ways to give games away (hey we finally found what Mike McCarthy is good at). Meanwhile, it took some time but it looks like big game Kirk Cousins has finally arrived. And that's not a good thing. This is a straight-up home team play.  

Houston by 6 over Tennessee: The Pick - Texans

The Titans have lost to the Dolphins and the Bills, they've been blown-out by the Ravens and the Colts and even with those dismal performances they would still potentially be in the driver's seat for a playoff spot if Mike Vrabel hadn't given the Chargers game away by going for two just because they wanted to get the fuck out of London. I think it's slowly dawning on them that Marcus Mariota's ceiling is 9-7 which is a shitty feeling. Just ask the Lions. (I know they went 11-5 in 2014 but you get the point . . . work with me people).

Last Week's Record: 6-7 . . . Overall Record: 30-34-2.

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