Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Fantasy Golf: The Wells Fargo Preview

You'll have to forgive me for the brevity and somewhat scattered nature of this week's preview but I've got an impending golf match of very minor importance that has me highly distracted. This is what happens when some fucking sun and warmth finally breaks through the dome of winter misery that sits on top of Baltimore and makes us feel like we're living in a David Simon miniseries about Winterfell that they asked Cormac McCarthy to touch-up because the original script still gave the audience some small sliver of hope. Did I mention that the golf match that has me so twisted-up isn't until Saturday? Good lord it's been a long off season.

"Thanks for sleeping with
me. I'm going to go back
to being 13 years old now."
But you know what they say, comedy equals tragedy plus time (I was told there would be no math) so the last seven months should have me well-positioned to do some of my best work. One problem. Golf has kinda sucked lately or at least since Rory blitzed Bay Hill over six weeks ago. Since then, the list of winners is Bubba Watson (in a blowout at the Match Play), Brice Garnett, Ian Poulter, Patrick Reed, Satoshi Kodaira, Andrew Landry and Billy Horschel/Scott Piercy. To quote Josh Baskin from Big, "well what's fun about that?" Great question formerly loved movie character who now seems a bit creepy. 

Here's a better question. What in the hell happened to all of the big time players? Before this recent run of blah and meh and douche we had winners like Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Philip Alfred Fucking Mickelson (I looked it up and 75% of that is his real name). And what about Tiger? Where'd he go? That sweet three tournament run in Florida back in February and March is starting to feel like the dream you wake-up from just when Carla Gugino is saying "I'm kind of up for anything." 

Well this week could provide us some blessed relief as we head to Quail Hollow where Rory, JT, Rickie and Tiger have all won since 2006 and where Phil has recorded multiple top fives. Throw Jason Day in the mix and we have a reasonable shot at finally seeing a couple of "A" list players battling down the stretch. We just need to hope we don't get the other end of the spectrum that this course has been known to produce in the form of 1-2 punches like James Hahn/Roberto Castro in 2016 and Derek Ernst/David Lynn in 2013. (Derek Ernst?)


Rory is the favorite for good reason but it's hard to make a case that he's a far better pick than Thomas, Day, Fowler or Mickelson. In fact, I'd probably pick Rickie if I hadn't already used him but instead I'm going with Phil because, unless you're going for the feel good pick at a major, this is the most obvious place. Not to mention, we're way past due for a final round that features more star power than a dinner theater production of Cats. (Oh my God I think I just summed-up the essence of hell). 

One and Done Pick: Phil Mickelson
Wait, Weren't you in Spy Kids?


Sleeper Pick: Lucas Glover

The DraftKings Top Ten Values

Justin Thomas
$11,300
Rickie Fowler
$11,100
Phil Mickelson
$9,200
Paul Casey
$8,900
Alex Noren
$8,100
Brian Harman
$7,900
Francesco Molinari
$7,400
Gary Woodland
$7,400
Lucas Glover
$6,800
Kevin Tway
$6,600
         
Below is this week's research. I included last year's PGA Championship played at Quail Hollow because frankly, the last five years of regular tournament results didn't provide as much insight as I thought it would for a track that the players supposedly love but often don't play. Maybe some of the higher ranked guys don't want to screw-up their swings by playing a real golf course before heading down to that dumpster fire of a layout in Ponte Vedra next week. (Players Championship Preview teaser). 

                 QUAIL HOLLOW BY THE SOMEWHAT RELEVANT NUMBERS  


DK Price
PGA
2017
2016
2015
2014
Rory McIlroy
$11,800
T22
DNP
T4
1st
T8
Justin Thomas
$11,300
1st
DNP
MC
T7
DNP
Rickie Fowler
$11,100
T5
DNP
T4
DNP
T38
Jason Day
$10,200
T9
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Patrick Reed
$9,700
T2
T12
T28
T58
DNP
H. Matsuyama
$9,400
T5
DNP
T11
T20
T38
Phil Mickelson
$9,200
MC
T18
T4
T4
T11
Tiger Woods
$9,100
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
T. Fleetwood
$9,000
T61
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Paul Casey
$8,900
T13
T12
T41
DNP
DNP
Louis Oosthuizen
$8,800
T2
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tony Finau
$8,700
T44
DNP
T28
DNP
DNP
Ryan Moore
$8,500
T13
DNP
MC
T47
T18
Webb Simpson
$8,400
T33
MC
MC
T2
T38
Kevin Kisner
$8,300
T7
MC
MC
T38
T6
Alex Noren
$8,100
T67
T31
DNP
DNP
DNP
B. DeChambeau
$8,000
T33
MC
MC
DNP
DNP
Brian Harman
$7,900
T13
1st
T35
MC
T65
James Hahn
$7,800
T13
T59
1st
73rd
MC
Chesson Hadley
$7,500
DNP
MC
T11
T20
DNP
Beau Hossler
$7,400
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
F. Molinari
$7,400
T2
T24
T17
DNP
DNP
Gary Woodland
$7,400
T22
DNP
T24
T4
T18
Tyrrell Hatton
$7,400
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
J.B. Holmes
$7,300
T28
T36
T53
MC
1st
Charles Howell
$7,200
T73
DNP
MC
T38
T18
Grayson Murray
$6,900
T22
T63
DNP
DNP
DNP
Lucas Glover
$6,800
T33
T52
8th
T28
MC
Trey Mullinax
$6,800
DNP
MC
DNP
DNP
DNP
Kevin Tway
$6,600
DNP
T5
DNP
DNP
DNP

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com
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