Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Fantasy Golf: The Valspar Championship Preview

Do you want to know a sure sign that you're really kicking ass in life? Passing cars on the outside. Cashing checks and snapping necks. Well here you go. You devote several hours a week and several years of your life to the study of fantasy golf to the point where you could probably have a Ph.D in it by now if there was some barely accredited school that offered it (e.g. University of Arizona, Auburn, L.S.U., etc.). You research it, write about it and maintain an almost encyclopedic knowledge of which players historically perform well at every stop on tour. That alone might give one pause to ponder the question, "is this really the best use of my time?" 

Oh but it gets better. Then you decide to monetize this effort by wagering against people who spend two minutes thinking about fantasy golf before making a slightly educated guess as to which player will win that week. Surely you would think that, under these circumstances, the extensive research would literally pay dividends and the Ph.D would crush the recreational player over the course of a season. And surely you would be wrong as I currently sit squarely in 30th place out of 37 teams sucking-on blown picks like Patrick Reed's missed cut at Pebble Beach, Dustin Johnson's inexplicable stumble at Riviera and Hideki Matsuyama's withdrawal at TPC Scottsdale (that was the proverbial writing on the wall). Clearly I have angered the fantasy golf gods and, after yet another pedestrian effort this past weekend (I'm looking at you Fleetwood), I gotta say . . . morale is low.


But I plow forward buoyed by the hope that THIS WILL BE THE WEEK and also by the fact that I get to draft a six man season-long team tomorrow night (something that I have historically sucked at less). My current plan is to pick Ryan Moore this week. I don't like this plan. I don't want to follow this plan. However, I feel like going against my better instincts may be advisable at this point (the "Costanza Gambit"). Also, I don't want to pick the guys I have ranked ahead of him because I've either already used them (Garcia and Finau) or I have them penciled in somewhere else later (Spieth, Stenson, Rose and Casey). With all of that being said, I'm going to have couple of beers tomorrow night so this pick could change depending on how many a "couple" turns-out to be:


1-2 Beers: Ryan Moore (This pick is starting to make sense)

3-4 Beers: Paul Casey (I can't stand Ryan Moore - what else you got?)
5-6 Beers: Ryan Moore (Fuck Paul Casey - Ryan Moore is the man!)
7-8 Beers: Bryson DeChambeau (I'll take that cocky prick just to spite myself)
9-10 Beers: Ernie Els (Piss-off . . . [yelling now] HE'S IN THE FIELD!)
11-12 Beers: Tiger Woods (IT'S GONNA BE CRAZY DUDE!!!)
13+ Beers: Ryan Moore (Fuck you. Pay the check. Where's my other shoe?)

"Nope. That's not the one."
As for the rest of our picks (yours and mine), the course has tended to favor straight hitters. Past winners include the power trio of Luke Donald, Jim Furyk and Kevin Streelman so look for guys who can hit a bunch of fairways like Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy (just seeing if you were paying attention). I've actually got those two at the bottom of my top 30 just for the sake of recognizing their participation but chances are that one or both of them are going to miss the cut meaning a relaxing Friday night exploring Tampa's world renowned fine arts district . . . if you know what I mean . . . and I think you do.   

Let's end on that high note. I've got research to do. As always, the following chart represents the FGR's often laughably inaccurate predicted order of finish.      

 LOSING MONEY FOR DUMMIES - VALSPAR EDITION         



DK Price
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Jordan Spieth
$11,800
DNP
T18
1ST
T20
T7
Henrik Stenson
$10,200
T7
T11
4th
DNP
DNP
Sergio Garcia
$10,900
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
T7
Tony Finau
$9,400
5th
MC
MC
DNP
DNP
Justin Rose
$10,000
DNP
DNP
MC
T8
T25
Paul Casey
$9,800
DNP
DNP
DNP
MC
DNP
Ryan Moore
$9,100
T18
3rd
5th
DNP
MC
Cameron Smith
$8,000
T49
T42
DNP
DNP
DNP
Charl Schwartzel
$7,500
6th
1st
DNP
DNP
DNP
Jamie Lovemark
$7,300
T27
T37
DNP
DNP
DNP
Adam Hadwin
$8,800
1st
MC
71st
DNP
DNP
Patrick Reed
$7,700
T38
T7
T2
DNP
MC
B. DeChambeau
$7,400
T27
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Branden Grace
$8,600
DNP
T37
DNP
MC
DNP
Byeon Hun An
$8,400
T49
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Matt Kuchar
$8,200
T22
T11
T33
T38
T14
Kevin Streelman
$7,500
T18
MC
T40
T38
1st
Louis Oosthuizen
$8,100
DNP
T7
DNP
MC
MC
Gary Woodland
$9,000
T58
T42
MC
T8
MC
Charley Hoffman
$7,300
MC
T11
MC
T25
T75
Luke List
$7,800
T27
MC
DNP
DNP
MC
Kevin Na
$8,000
MC
T22
T10
2nd
DNP
Chez Reavie
$7,900
T27
T22
MC
DNP
T63
Jason Dufner
$7,800
T11
T22
T24
T14
T21
Harris English
$7,000
T27
MC
T10
T38
T7
Charles Howell, III
$7,400
T49
T5
T10
T14
DNP
Steve Stricker
$7,500
MC
T7
DNP
DNP
DNP
Rory McIlroy
$11,300
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
Tiger Woods
$9,500
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP
DNP

Yeah I think we figured it out 
from the writing but thanks.
The One and Done Pick: Ryan Moore

The Sleeper Pick: Harris English

The DraftKings Top Ten Values 

Jordan Spieth
$11,800
Henrik Stenson
$10,200
Tony Finau
$9,400
Ryan Moore
$9,100
Cameron Smith
$8,000
Charl Schwartzel
$7,500
B. DeChambeau
$7,400
Charles Howell, III
$7,400
Jamie Lovemark
$7,300
Harris English
$7,000
        
Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com
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