Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Fantasy Golf: The WGC-Mexico Championship Preview

We've got a top notch field going this week as is standard for a WGC event but it's not as strong as it could be. I get why Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama aren't there (injuries) and why Tiger Woods isn't making the trip (not invited) but what's the deal with Rory McIlroy, Jason Day* and Henrik Stenson? Are they afraid of getting stuck on the wrong side of the wall and missing the Masters? (Just a little MAGA humor there for you . . . ah we kid because we're weary and repulsed). On a lighter note, see if you can find the five references to my favorite Seinfeld episode cleverly hidden throughout this week's preview.

"I think this place is restricted Rory
so don't tell 'em you're Irish."
We've still got a loaded field that includes fifteen of the top twenty players in the world on a course that produced arguably the best top ten leaderboard last year (see conveniently highlighted players below). The obvious picks are the all initial team of D.J., J.R. and J.T.** who finished in the top five last year, have already won this year and are #1, #2 and #3 in the World Golf Rankings so you couldn't go wrong with any of them unless you were me picking in which case you would doom one of them to a torn abdominal muscle suffered while vomiting from food poisoning while stepping on a bunker rake. 

All of that is going to change this week, however, and Tommy Fleetwood is just the guy to do it. Check-out this resume: (1) He finished 2nd here last year; (2) He finished 4th last week at the Honda Classic despite it being his first trip to that dogshit course; and (3) Since the start of 2018, he has climbed from 17th to 11th in the world. He's also a pure ball striker which means he can really strike balls purely and this is a ball strikers golf course as opposed to those other types of courses more suited to ball tappers, ball strokers or ball grazers. Also, Fleetwood is the chalk pick as evidenced by the fact that literally half of the people who do this for a living (which would be about five of us) are picking him this week. I probably would've considered someone else if I had known but they only wake me up for the important meetings.

If there's a pick more chalky than Fleetwood, it would be Justin Thomas who finished T5 here last year and is coming-off a win. I just see a bit of a letdown after an emotional Sunday that saw him (1) win in a playoff, (2) drop a couple of F-bombs upon holing the final putt and (3) get a fan ejected for heckling him. I obviously approve of all three but instead of tossing the guy I would've preferred he told him that he slept with his wife. That would've killed him.   

This is only the second year they've played this event at Club de Golf Chapultepec (that's a fun one to imagine the Manchurian Pumpkin over annunciating) so the chart only goes back to 2017 because no one really gives a crap how well Adam Scott and Bubba Watson played when it was hosted by Dump National Doral (all credit to Brandt Snedeker's caddie). To bulk the chart up from a C+ to a B, we've added a column showing each player's current World Golf Ranking. It doesn't really add any value to the analysis but I spent ten minutes doing it which can pretty much be said of just about every paragraph I write.   

Say what you want about the usefulness of this chart but the winner has been on it three out of the five times I've done it which means that there's a 60% chance that this week's winner is listed below and probably better than that considering I named 30 of the 65 players in the field. This is why I don't write in large groups. So I can make-up the rules as I go along. 

THE FGR'S 2018 WGC-MEXICO SUPER SYSTEM FORMULA THEORY

FGR
Player
DK Price
WGR
2017
1
Tommy Fleetwood
$10,000
11
2nd
2
Jon Rahm
$10,600
2
T3
3
Justin Rose
$9,700
5
T38
4
Paul Casey
$8,400
17
T16
5
Alex Noren
$8,800
14
T55
6
Dustin Johnson
$11,900
1
1st
7
Tony Finau
$8,500
32
DNP
8
Rickie Fowler
$9,800
7
T16
9
Justin Thomas
$11,500
3
T5
10
Sergio Garcia
$9,100
12
T12
11
Thomas Pieters
$8,300
39
T5
12
Phil Mickelson
$9,300
34
T7
13
Joost Luiten
$7,300
67
T25
14
Matt Kuchar
$7,600
18
T20
15
Xander Schauffele
$7,800
23
DNP
16
Jordan Spieth
$10,500
4
T12
17
Patrick Cantlay
$8,700
34
DNP
18
Branden Grace
$7,700
28
T32
19
Tyrell Hatton
$8,600
16
10th
20
Daniel Berger
$7,900
33
T16
21
Marc Leishman
$7,600
15
DNP
22
Bubba Watson
$8,900
41
T38
23
Ross Fisher
$8,200
27
T3
24
Gary Woodland
$7,600
25
T38
25
F. Molinari
$7,300
22
T20
26
Webb Simpson
$7,800
41
DNP
27
Matthew Fitzpatrick
$7,600
30
T16
28
Louis Oosthuizen
$8,000
29
T48
29
Kevin Chappell
$8,100
35
T55
30
Chez Reavie
$8,100
46
DNP

If we ever actually do build the wall,
please leave me on the other side.
The One and Done Pick: Tommy Fleetwood

The Sleeper Pick: Joost Luiten

The DraftKings Top Ten Values

Jon Rahm
$10,600
T. Fleetwood
$10,000
Justin Rose
$9,700
Tony Finau
$8,500
Paul Casey
$8,400
Thomas Pieters
$8,300
X. Schauffele
$7,800
Matt Kuchar
$7,600
Joost Luiten
$7,300
Johnny Vegas
$6,900

Footnote

* I have Google so I know the serious reason that Day isn't playing. It's a joke people and I'm not dumbing it down for some bonehead!

** It's funny how some letters are naturally good initials like D.J. and J.T. while others just suck. For instance, no one would call Rory McIlroy or Jordan Spieth by their initials because R.M. and J.S. sound awkward, forced and stupid . . . wait a minute. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com
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