Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The Olympic Preview

This post was originally going to be called An Olympically Bad Idea and the opening line of the first draft was "[I]f you still think Olympic golf is a good idea, please raise your hand, clench it into a fist and punch one of the other guys who raised his hand right in the face." Why? Well let's start with the obvious reason which is that Olympic competition is supposed to determine the premier athlete in each sport which would be an intriguing event for golf except that (a) we already know that the four best players in the world are Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy, and (b) none of them are playing this week. But that shouldn't stop us from having a good time and, thanks to our law-skirting friends over at DraftKings, we have a gambling vehicle that will take us there.

"I swear there were 3 of them."
The problem from a prognosticating standpoint is that one of the two pillars on which we base these epic picks every week, course knowledge, is not a factor because none of these guys will have played much less seen the course before they arrive. We do know that it's a seaside course inspired by the "Sandbelt" style most commonly found in places like Australia so, even though Jason Day isn't playing, that should give the Aussies an advantage with guys like Adam Scott and Marc Leishman (what? they're out too? well then who in the hell is playing for Australia . . . Greg Norman and Robert "Road Rash" Allenby?). 

With that linksy seaside feel in mind, we're going to favor British Open guys who are currently playing well with a slight nod in the direction of the two Aussies who will actually be there - Scott Hend and Marcus Fraser (never underestimate the desire of the Aussies to play for their country if not to just inspire one of the greatest chants in sports). That means we like Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia along with Emiliano Grillo, Thongchai Jaidee and Soren Kjeldsen (Jaidee's British Open record is really kind of uninspiring, we just have a feeling). 

Another problem is that when you're dealing with a sixty man field and almost half of them have no business being in the same tournament with guys like Stenson, Garcia and Justin Rose (that's not a jab, it's a fact . . . and also a jab), you've got to get really creative when looking for roster value to balance-out those big ticket guys. We think we found a couple in the $6,900 - $7,200 range with enough international success to make them palatable picks. I wouldn't, however, look much lower than Alex Cejka at $6,600. Sure you can grab a Roope Kakko from the bargain bin for $5,600 but seriously, when and where in the fuck are you ever going to wear that?

The Olympic Odds
The Olympic women tee off in Rio next week.
Unfortunately, Sophie Horn is not in the field.
Why can't corruption ever be used for good?

1. Henrik Stenson - 11/2
2. Sergio Garcia - 15/2
3. Justin Rose - 12/1
4. Bubba Watson - 14/1
5. Martin Kaymer - 14/1
6. Patrick Reed - 14/1
7. Rickie Fowler - 14/1
8. Matt Kuchar - 16/1
9. Emiliano Grillo - 25/1
10. Danny Willett - 25/1

Ten Guys We Like in DraftKings

Henrik Stenson - $12,400
Sergio Garcia - $11,900
Emiliano Grillo - $9,600
Thongchai Jaidee - $8,600
Soren Kjeldsen - $8,500
Scott Hend - $7,800
Joost Luiten - $7,500
Yuta Ikeda - $7,200
Nicolas Colsaerts - $6,900   
Marcus Fraser - $6,700

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.