Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The U.S. Open Preview

Let's start with the basic odds. Not because anyone cares about golf odds anymore, but because it provides a nice open wall to hang a pretty painting on the right. After that, we'll get down to what you really care about with our fifteen most valuable DraftKings picks followed by five guys we think are more overpriced than an ice cream cone at the beach (seven bucks?!?! . . . what's in that fucking thing? . . . Wagyu milk?). 

THE U.S. OPEN ODDS

USA . . . USA!!!

1. Jason Day - 13/2
2. Rory McIlroy - 7/1
3. Jordan Spieth - 9/1
4. Dustin Johnson - 16/1
5. Justin Rose - 25/1
6. Rickie Fowler - 25/1
7. Adam Scott - 28/1
8. Phil Mickelson - 28/1
9. Henrik Stenson - 28/1
10. Hideki Matsuyama - 33/1
11. Danny Willett - 33/1
12. Matt Kuchar - 33/1
13. Sergio Garcia - 35/1
14. Bubba Watson - 40/1
15. Patrick Reed - 45/1

The One and Done Pick: Jason Day

The Sleeper Pick: Keegan Bradley

FIFTEEN GUYS WE LIKE IN DRAFTKINGS

Jason Day ($12,100): You always have to like the best player in the world, especially when the course seems like it was designed based on the question, "how could we give Jason Day the biggest possible advantage?" 


Justin Rose ($10,500): You should definitely build at least one roster around each of the "Big Three" but now we need to start filling-in the gaps. As we work our way down the price scale, we're taking Rose over Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama because he was playing really well before resting his back and he also showed at Merion that he can win on a U.S. Open course that takes a ton of patience and resilience. Really tempted to pick him over Day as a semi-dark horse.


Willett or Greyjoy?
See what I mean?
Danny Willett ($9,600): Willett just looks like a U.S. Open player which offsets him also looking like Theon Greyjoy. Of course, we know Willett just had a baby so . . . 

Sergio Garcia ($8,900): The FGR finds itself in that small group of people who still believes that Sergio is going to win a major. (There are about the same number of us as there were ever people with "O'Malley '16" bumper stickers that actually made it to their bumpers). The fact is that Sergio is hitting the ball as well as he ever has as evidenced by the fact that he's leading the tour in GIR.*

Matt Kuchar ($8,500): Kuch is playing his best golf in a while and his driver/putter combo should be money at Oakmont. Not to mention, we've said it before and we'll say it again, who doesn't love Kuch?

Patrick Reed ($8,400): Reed's a feisty S.O.B. and that's a personality type that could thrive this week because one way to attack Oakmont is with a "fuck you" approach (see: Johnny Miller). The others ways are a laid back South African style (see: Ernie Els) or a laid back chain-smoking South American style (see: El Pato). We're trying to find one of those. (Does anyone know if Emilliano Grillo smokes?)


Brandt Snedeker ($8,000): Snedeker's been up and down since his fast start but he has four top tens in his last seven U.S. Opens and two of his other finishes were a T11th and T17th to go with only one missed cut. Hard to go wrong at Oakmont with a guy who smiles that much. If for no other reason, he pisses-off everyone else.   

Martin Kaymer ($7,600): Don't look now but the steady German is playing his best golf at the right time and we all remember (or have worked hard to forget) what that did to the excitement level at Pinehurst in 2014.

Hey Russ, are you ok? You look
like you just shanked a wedge
on the most naked hole in golf.
Russell Knox ($7,600): There's no water at Oakmont so Knox isn't going to rinse three balls and over half a million dollars on one hole like he did at The Players when his third round sideshow cost him the difference between T19th and T2nd.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,300): He's about as consistent as the health benefits of a Chipotle burrito but, like the burrito, when he's on his game, he's really good as he showed by winning last week and finishing T7th at the Masters.

Marc Leishman ($7,300): At least a couple non-descript straight drivers are going to finish in the top ten. Leishman is our pick to be one of them. ZZZZZZzzzzzzzz.

Daniel Berger ($7,200): Berger was playing with confidence before last week's win in Memphis. Now he rolls into his second U.S. Open knowing he just took down Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka. He's got to be feeling like every dance scene in Magic Mike XXL right now (yeah I watched it . . . TWICE!).

Webb Simpson ($7,000): We have no idea where Webb Simpson went but it appears that he may have returned at the right time with a T3rd and a T11th in his last two starts. His U.S. Open record isn't that great unless you count that win in 2012 and we are in fact going to count that.

Emilliano Grillo ($6,900): OK so we don't think he smokes but he did just finish T11th at The Memorial and before that he was T17th at the Masters plus his recent history is littered with indicators that he plays his best against quality competition (take our word for it). Anyway, he's a steal at this price.

Keegan Bradley ($6,800): Bradley leads the tour in total driving and, despite a very sketchy season overall, he just finished T8th at The Memorial so he may have found something.  

. . . AND FIVE GUYS WE DON'T


Jordan Spieth ($11,900): As noted above, you have to throw him on at least one roster just in case but even with that win a few weeks ago, we're not convinced he knows where the ball is going off the tee or how far it's going with the irons. Remember that he came in with a little something to prove to Day and McIlroy at The Memorial and shot 74-73 on the weekend to beat Rod Fucking Pampling (not his real name) by one shot. If there are still any cracks, Oakmont is going to blow them open.


Hard to erase this memory.
Dustin Johnson ($11,000): If you've been watching lately, it would certainly appear that D.J. is hitting it longer than he (or maybe anyone) ever has. When you couple that with the fact that Angel Cabrera won at Oakmont in 2007, you might say to yourself "hmmmmm." But don't be fooled. He's 162nd in driving accuracy which is a killer on this course because it means you're leaving yourself a ton of squirrelly par putts. I'm wincing just thinking about him this week.**  

Rickie Fowler ($10,700): Rickie has missed the cut in three of his last five tournaments including the Masters and The Players where we were led to believe he would contend. He appears to have entered the "trying too hard" phase of his major career. He will either emerge from it in dramatic fashion at some point a la Phil Mickelson, or become Sergio 2.0. 

Bubba Watson ($9,500): Forget that Bubba finished T5th here in 2007. That was a different, far less impatient player than the guy who has missed the cut in four of the past eight Opens and hasn't finished better than T32nd in one since 2009.


Jim Furyk ($7,700): Furyk's getting some love as a local favorite and because he finished tied for 2nd with Tiger back in 2007. Two things worth noting: (1) He is 46 years old and (2) he's coming-off a wrist injury which is about the last thing you want on your mind when hitting out of the pit bull teeth rough at Oakmont. 

Footnote


* And no, we're not going to define "GIR." This is the fucking U.S. Open Preview and we're not dumbing it down for anybody!


** Full disclosure . . . I have an interest in D.J. winning this week so there is a bit of reverse jinxing going on here.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com. (Note to those who used to get the FGR link from the old email address. That address was terminated by the provider for reasons unbeknownst to me. Maybe it was because I was their last customer. No one will answer the phone to tell me).