Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The Memorial Tournament Preview

There was a smattering of requests for further explanation of my match-play disaster from a week ago so we'll be efforting something called Anatomy of a Meltdown in the coming days (or weeks). In the meantime, we've got a top flight event (as opposed to a Top Flite event which would imply untucked shirts and cargo shorts*) on tap this week with the new "Big Three" set to lock horns on a course that usually delivers the goods. 

(Note that "Big Three" wannabe Rickie Fowler doesn't even have the fourth best odds this week. Missing the cut at the Masters and The Players after supposedly announcing your presence with authority on the other side of the world way the hell back in January will have that effect). 

The Memorial could drop the mic solely on the fact that Tiger has won it five times but, to hammer home the point, it can boast a few two-time winners you may have heard of named Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Hale Irwin and Greg Norman. Throw-in solo titles for multiple major winners like Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Raymond Floyd and Curtis Strange and you certainly have a better case for a 5th major than that tournament they played on the course next to the tattoo parlor with the windmill and the clown's mouth a few weeks ago. But I slightly digress.

Last year's winner David Lingmerth was the first outlier we've had since Carl Pettersson in 2006 so we're due for a classy Sunday leaderboard. It doesn't hurt that the event may never have boasted a field this strong with the top five ranked players in the world and 18 of the top 30. Someone really good at golf is gonna win this week (hey thanks dipshit). The question is who? 

The obvious pick would be Jordan Spieth who is coming-off a win and finished T3rd here last year. After him, I'd rank 'em (2) Hideki Matsuyama, (3) Jason Day, (4) Matt Kuchar and (5) Bubba Watson and, if I was making a one and done pick, it would be Matsuyama and then Kuchar. Unfortunately, I've already burned those two guys and I've got Spieth, Day and Bubba slated elsewhere down the road. I thought about going with Kevin Na based on his past success at Muirfield (T13th and 2nd the last two years) but picking Na for this event just feels like showing-up for your high school reunion in a minivan so I'm going to drop a couple hundred at Avis and roll-up in a shiny new Lincoln MKZ. (That was a very convoluted way of saying that I'm picking Paul Casey).       
      
Is he related to Kacey Barnfield? 
THE MEMORIAL ODDS

Jason Day - 13/2
Rory McIlroy - 13/2
Jordan Spieth - 7/1
Hideki Matsuyama - 16/1
Rickie Fowler - 20/1
Matt Kuchar - 22/1
Dustin Johnson - 22/1
Bubba Watson - 25/1
Patrick Reed - 40/1
Phil Mickelson - 40/1
Paul Casey - 45/1
Daniel Berger - 50/1
Jason Dufner - 50/1
Charl Schwartzel  - 50/1

One and Done Pick: Paul Casey

Sleeper Pick: David Hearn
Wrong spelling dummy. He'd be
related to "Casey" Batchelor.

FIFTEEN GOOD BETS

Jason Day - $12,400
Jordan Spieth - $12,300
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,600
Matt Kuchar - $9,900
Paul Casey - $8,800
Chris Kirk - $8,300
Kevin Na - $8,100
Marc Leishman - $7,900
Bill Haas - $7,700
Russell Knox - $7,600
Francisco Molinari - $7,400
Luke Donald - $7,200
Scott Piercy - $6,900
Daniel Summerhays - $6,900
David Hearn - $6,700

ONE AND DONE PICKS TO DATE

Hyundai:
Dustin Johnson
$148,000
Sony:
Matt Kuchar
$77,604
CareerBuilder:
Ryan Palmer
$75,897
Farmers:
Brandt Snedeker
$1,170,000
Phoenix:
Hideki Matsuyama
$1,170,000
Pebble Beach:
Jimmy Walker
$143,500
Northern Trust:
Sergio Garcia
$0
Honda:
Patrick Reed
$0
Cadillac:
Rickie Fowler
$197,500
Valspar
Ryan Moore
$414,800
Palmer:
Henrik Stenson
$365,400
Match Play:
Branden Grace
$90,900
Houston Open:
Phil Mickelson
$160,760
Masters:
Adam Scott
$37,000
Heritage:
Kevin Kisner
$11,859
Texas Open:
Charley Hoffman
$1,116,000
Zurich:
Billy Horschel
$28,029
Wells Fargo:
Kevin Chappell
$22,642
Players:
Rory McIlroy
$212,625
Nelson:
Marc Leishman
$0
Colonial:
Jason Dufner
$216,913
Total
$5,659,429

Footnote

* Never forget that I am an insufferable country club douche . . . not that I'll let you.

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The Dean & Deluca Invitational Preview

Before we get to this week's tournament preview, let's take a minute to talk about choking. And more specifically, choking away a 4 up lead with 5 holes to play. And even more specifically, choking away that lead in a tournament that you really give a crap about. And very specifically, choking away that kind of lead when all you (as a 6 handicap) and your partner (as a 9 handicap) had to do was make one par on the last four holes to win. And quite specifically . . . FUCK!!! 

Okay. Now that I didn't even begin to get that out of my fucking system, let's get to this week's event which used to be called the Crowne Plaza Invitational and before that was just called the Colonial but is now sponsored by Dean & Deluca . . . "purveyors of fine food" (because they don't just "sell" fine food, they "purvey" it). Remember when these second tier events used to have badass names like the Buick-Goodwrench Open, the Anheiser-Busch Golf Classic and the Michelob-Houston Open. Now we have a tournament sponsored by a company that sells a $75 "French Cheese Plate" . . . and it's being played in Texas! I expect fixing that shit to be near the top of President Trump's to do list.     

Anyway, here's the only advice you need this week. Pick a player who hits it straight. Zach Johnson won here in 2010 and 2012. Jason Dufner was runner-up in 2012 and 2014. Those two guys should top your list of candidates along with the assortment of slap hitters I have listed below. And now, if you'll excuse me, I feel another bogey flashback coming-on so I'm going to stick a butter knife in a toaster.
   
Thanks for another 
great year Texas.
THE DEAN & DELUCA INVITATIONAL ODDS

Jordan Spieth - 6/1
Adam Scott - 11/1
Matt Kuchar - 14/1
Zach Johnson - 22/1
Charley Hoffman - 25/1
Kevin Chappell - 28/1
Patrick Reed - 33/1
Jim Furyk - 33/1
Kevin Na - 33/1
Louis Oosthuizen - 33/1
Charl Schwartzel - 35/1
Chris Kirk - 35/1
Jason Dufner - 40/1
Brandt Snedeker - 40/1
Jimmy Walker - 40/1
Colt Knost - 40/1
Danny Lee - 40/1

One and Done Pick: Jason Dufner
Love the hats.

Sleeper Pick: Scott Piercy

FIFTEEN GUYS WE LIKE

Jordan Spieth - $12,800
Matt Kuchar - $11,000
Zach Johnson - $10,700
Chris Kirk - $9,700
Kevin Chappell - $9,600
Jason Dufner - $8,400
Colt Knost - $8,300
Patton Kizzire - $7,600
Smylie Kaufman - $7,600
Jerry Kelly - $7,200
Freddie Jacobson - $7,100
Bryce Molder - $7,100
Kyle Reifers - $7,000
Scott Piercy - $6,800
Adam Hadwin - $6,600

ONE AND DONE PICKS TO DATE

Hyundai:
Dustin Johnson
$148,000
Sony:
Matt Kuchar
$77,604
CareerBuilder:
Ryan Palmer
$75,897
Farmers:
Brandt Snedeker
$1,170,000
Phoenix:
Hideki Matsuyama
$1,170,000
Pebble Beach:
Jimmy Walker
$143,500
Northern Trust:
Sergio Garcia
$0
Honda:
Patrick Reed
$0
Cadillac:
Rickie Fowler
$197,500
Valspar
Ryan Moore
$414,800
Palmer:
Henrik Stenson
$365,400
Match Play:
Branden Grace
$90,900
Houston Open:
Phil Mickelson
$160,760
Masters:
Adam Scott
$37,000
Heritage:
Kevin Kisner
$11,859
Texas Open:
Charley Hoffman
$1,116,000
Zurich:
Billy Horschel
$28,029
Wells Fargo:
Kevin Chappell
$22,642
Players:
Rory McIlroy
$212,625
Nelson:
Marc Leishman
$0
Total
$5,442,516

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.


Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Fantasy Golf: The AT&T Byron Nelson Preview

Let's begin with a quick follow-up note to self on last week's Players Championship Power Rankings. Note to self: When doing power rankings, always include the best player in the world. From this point forward (until further notice), whether it is written here or not, always include Jason Day on at least one entry of any multi-player contest that you might engage in so you don't feel like an idiot when he wins. (I actually followed this strategy last week . . . just failed to mention it in the preview. Whoops).

Now we head back to Texas for a little Byron Nelson - Colonial two step (see what I did there?) and we've got a decently stacked little field working with Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar and the suddenly borderline "A" lister Charley Hoffman. From a one and done standpoint, D.J. has to be the prohibitive favorite because Spieth's game may still be shirtless in the Bahamas trying too hard to prove that it's moved on from the 12th hole at Augusta. Unfortunately, I've already used D.J. along with Kuch, Hoffman and local favorite Ryan Palmer who would have been my second, third and fourth choices so we need to identify the next best dog with the fewest flees.*


Well Sonja Henie's out so it looks like our options are Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka, Charl Schwartzel and Zach Johnson (there are others but that's how I see it). Louis' level of commitment always scares me, especially coming off the four day grind at The Players. Koepka still looks to be a swing tweak away from his 2015 form and Z.J. is a better option at other venues. That leaves Schwartzel who always seems to disengage the week I pick him as he is about as reliable as $5 umbrella. You know what? Screw Schwartzel and the rest of 'em. I'm picking Marc Leishman.


AUSSIE AUSSIE AUSSIE!!!
THE BYRON NELSON ODDS

Jordan Spieth - 13/2
Dustin Johnson - 8/1
Charley Hoffman - 20/1
Matt Kuchar - 20/1
Sergio Garcia - 22/1
Brooks Koepka - 25/1
Louis Oosthuizen - 25/1
Zach Johnson - 25/1
Charl Schwartzel - 25/1
Marc Leishman - 30/1 
Brandt Snedeker - 30/1
Jimmy Walker - 33/1

One and Done Pick: Marc Leishman

Sleeper Pick: Bryce Molder

FIFTEEN GUYS WE LIKE
OI OI OI!!!

Dustin Johnson - $11,900
Charley Hoffman - $10,800
Matt Kuchar - $10,500
Brooks Koepka - $9.600
Marc Leishman - $9,500
Ryan Palmer - $8,900
Charles Howell, III - $8,200
Keegan Bradley - $7,900
Graham DeLaet - $7,900
Colt Knost - $7,800
Freddie Jacobson - $7,300
Jon Curran - $6,900
Bryce Molder - $6,800
Ricky Barnes - $6,700
Jerry Kelly - $6,700

ONE AND DONE PICKS TO DATE


Hyundai:
Dustin Johnson
$148,000
Sony:
Matt Kuchar
$77,604
CareerBuilder:
Ryan Palmer
$75,897
Farmers:
Brandt Snedeker
$1,170,000
Phoenix:
Hideki Matsuyama
$1,170,000
Pebble Beach:
Jimmy Walker
$143,500
Northern Trust:
Sergio Garcia
$0
Honda:
Patrick Reed
$0
Cadillac:
Rickie Fowler
$197,500
Valspar
Ryan Moore
$414,800
Palmer:
Henrik Stenson
$365,400
Match Play:
Branden Grace
$90,900
Houston Open:
Phil Mickelson
$160,760
Masters:
Adam Scott
$37,000
Heritage:
Kevin Kisner
$11,859
Texas Open:
Charley Hoffman
$1,116,000
Zurich:
Billy Horschel
$28,029
Wells Fargo:
Kevin Chappell
$22,642
Players:
Rory McIlroy
$212,625
Total
$5,442,516

Footnote

* I always wondered what Gordon Gekko's dog rating criteria was beyond flea population. It probably wasn't based on breeding because he scoffed at Ivy League diplomas so maybe he favored speed, strength or raw killing power. Then again, he does tell Bud that if he wants a friend, he should get a dog so maybe he's just a sucker for a good old man's best friend mutt. Actually, I never wondered about this until just now. Not sure why I premised this footnote on a lie. Maybe it's a symptom of desperation from living in a place that's had so much rain over the past three weeks that I've actually Googled "how to build an ark." (That was also a lie . . . I've never Googled that . . . I clearly need some time away from election coverage).