Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Fantasy Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Preview

Some people who devote a stupid amount of their time to things like picking the winners of golf tournaments are probably humble and unassuming. Suffice it to say that I am not one of those people as evidenced by the fact that I once devoted almost 2,000 words to a detailed account of how my fantasy football team went undefeated. Don't be fooled by the feigned effort to be self-deprecating by comparing that feat to when Homer Simpson almost sacrificed his marriage to catch a legendary fish.* That was out and out bragging. And this will be too.

You see it all started way back in January when I sat down to perform some in-depth analysis on the Farmers Insurance Open. The obvious pick that week would've been Jason Day who was the defending champion and is arguably the best player in the world today (I wouldn't argue it but someone could which technically makes it "arguable"). The FGR decided to shun conventional wisdom, however, and go with another past champion and one of the hottest players on tour in Brandt Snedeker. Did we foresee the bizarre turn of events which led to Snedeker shooting what may end-up being the best round of the year and then taking Monday off while the leaders struggled on the back nine, ultimately handing him the win? "Foresee" is a strong word. If you want to use it, please feel free but we'll just let the results speak for themselves.

Then we moved on to the Waste Management Phoenix Open where Bubba Watson was the logical choice based on his back to back runner-up finishes in 2014-15. We saw it differently, however, so we looked down the list of favorites past Snedeker and defending champion Brooks Koepka to the 4th and 5th players on the list . . . Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama. The easy thing to do would have been to pick Rickie because, well, everybody loves Rickie. But you can't let emotion cloud your judgment in these matters. Instead, you must trust your research and, in this case, that research showed that Matsuyama had historically played the TPC Scottsdale better than Fowler which may have something to do with Rickie's inability to figure-out a 342 yard par 4 (here's an idea Rickie. . . 5-iron/sand wedge).

Speaking of Rickie, anyone else 
who wears this needs to be
knee-capped with a 9-iron.
To commemorate the two week winning streak we've added a running total for our picks (see below). So now when this season inevitably starts to unravel like Marco Rubio under cross-examination by Chris Christie, we'll always have those two weeks just like Marco had his third place victory speech in Iowa to look back on and smile. (Don't worry, we'll give equal political bashing time on Thursday).** Unlike Marco, however, we still have our whole season ahead of us.

Downton Abbey Update

(Coming Thursday).

Back to Golf

We're leaving no stone unturned in an effort to keep the streak alive but fortunately we think we found the answer under the first stone because we're not much on manual labor. Brandt Snedeker had the fifth best odds when he won and so did Hideki Matsuyama. Coming into this week, we had a feeling it was going to be Jimmy Walker based on his past success at the AT&T and the likelihood that he would've probably won the Farmers if not for the weather (and the fact that he wasn't the FGR pick). So we cross-referenced that hunch with this week's odds and what do you know? Heat-up the gravy because we're about to roll a turkey (that's bowling lingo for three strikes in a row but I added the cheesy part about the gravy and frankly, I already hate myself for it).


The AT&T Pebble Beach Odds
So we're researching Downton
Abbey
and accidentally type
"Abbey hot" and . . . 

1. Jordan Spieth - 9/2
2. Jason Day - 8/1
3. Dustin Johnson - 11/1
4. Brandt Snedeker - 14/1
5. Jimmy Walker - 18/1
6. Bubba Watson - 18/1
7. Phil Mickelson - 22/1
8. Justin Rose - 25/1
9. Patrick Reed - 30/1
10. Brooks Koepka - 30/1

Ten Guys We Like***

Dustin Johnson - 11/1
Brandt Snedeker - 14/1
Jimmy Walker - 18/1
Phil Mickelson - 22/1
Kevin Na - 33/1
Hunter Mahan - 70/1
Bryce Molder - 90/1
Will Wilcox - 100/1
. . . BOOM, there's Abbey Clancy.
(We just can't miss these days).
James Hahn - 100/1
Brendon Todd - 150/1

One and Done Pick: Jimmy Walker

Sleeper Pick: Brendon Todd

One and Done Picks to Date

Hyundai:

Dustin Johnson 

$148,000
Sony: Matt Kuchar  $77,604
CareerBuilder: Ryan Palmer  $75,897
Farmers: Brandt Snedeker $1,170,000
Phoenix: Hideki Matsuyama $1,170,000
Total $2,641,501

Footnotes

* If you don't click on the link and read the General Sherman post (your loss), then at least check-out this Drunk Homer Simpson Montage with one of the truly epic lines in the history of man at 1:48.

** We've gone out of our way to avoid politics in the past but there is way too much material out there now to ignore. We'll do our best to keep it balanced but that's going to be tough until the Republicans thin the herd a bit because every time a candidate on either side opens his or her mouth there is massive potential for mockery and the Republicans currently lead the Democrats seven mouths to two.  

*** Jordan Spieth is always one of the "Ten Guys We Like" when he's in the field. 

Email the Fantasy Golf Report at fgr@fantasygolfreport.com.