Tuesday, August 25, 2015

The Draft Kings Top Twenty: The Barclays

Last week was shaping-up for a nice take until Brandt Snedeker three-jacked the first hole on Sunday and carried that momentum to a smooth 75. That one freakin' round basically took my "A" team of Snedeker, Bill Haas, Will Wilcox, Cameron Smith, Ben Martin and Jerry Kelly out of contention despite respectable efforts by Martin and Kelly to keep the team afloat. I guess that's why they call it gambling . . . NEVER-UP NEVER-IN . . . PLAYER "B" . . . DOES YOUR HUSBAND PLAY? . . . RUN LIKE A SORE DIC . . . sorry, left the lid off the cliché jar again.

Here's how all of last week's picks panned-out. I apologize for the Ricky Barnes and Johnson Wagner advice. You deserve better than that. Well at least some of you probably do. The rest of you know who you are.   

That damn porn stache suckers me in everytime.
Last Week's Picks

1. Brandt Snedeker - $10,300 (T43)
2. Bill Haas - $9,600 (T6)
3. Will Wilcox - $8,400 (T26)
4. Ricky Barnes - $7,000 (M/C)
5. Cameron Smith - $7,400 (T18)
6. Ben Martin - $7,900 (T10)
7. Billy Horschel - $9,500 (M/C)
8. Camilo Villegas - $7,100 (T26)
9. Johnson Wagner - $7,700 (M/C)
10. Jerry Kelly - $6,400 (T18)
11. Davis Love, III - $5,800 (1st)*

THE BARCLAYS DRAFT KINGS TOP TWENTY

Moving right along we have a top notch field this week that should be able to defend the leaderboard from threats by the likes of Jason Gore, Scott Brown and Tiger Woods. There is value to be had all over the joint and remember that's what we're trying to identify here. If you want to build a team around Jason Day, Justin Rose or Bubba Watson, by all means do and in fact, I'd recommend it but I'm not really helping you if I load the list with those guys now am I? (Deep down you know I'm right. You just need to convince you). 

So let's get down to it. I should tell you that I've already changed my first team line-up about five times but it keeps revolving around the top four on this list. Dammit, I've already said too much.   

1. Brooks Koepka - $9,700

Brooksy has four top six finishes in his last seven starts (including three in a row) and his three "missteps" were a pair of T18's at the U.S. and Canadian Opens on either side of a T10 at the British. You've got to ride him until he cools-off or until they find "Brooks was Here" carved into his hotel room wall (shame on you if you don't get that reference). 

2. Robert Streb - $7,900

Streb is almost as hot as Koepka but at about 80% of the price (I was a math major for a semester). In his last nine starts he has a 2nd, a 4th, a 5th and five other top 20's. I've got to believe that the DK pricing gun had a digit off on this one.

3. Dustin Johnson - $10,700

This is based on two factors: (1) Despite all of his trials, tribulations and "jet ski lifting injuries" including a quadruple bogey to start the final round at Whistling Straits, DJ still finished T7 at the PGA Championship which indicates that the process of exercising the demons from Chambers Bay and St. Andrews has begun, and (2) the last time the Barclays was played at Plainfield CC in 2011, he shot -19 through 54 holes to win the shortened event.

4. Charley Hoffman - $7,000

If you take out the last three majors, Hoffman has been money this season with six top tens and a win. He finished T7 as recently as the Canadian Open and T10 at the 2011 Barclays and the momentum from that round four years ago should absolutely carryover. 

5. Russell Henley - $7,500
"And remember. If you're in a posse and you don't
know who the fall guy is, then you're the fall guy."


Henley just has the look of a player who could make a run at the FedEx Cup. Solid all-around game and the capacity to get super hot with the putter like Billy Horschel did last year. He finished 5th at the Greenbrier before going T20 at the British, T17 at the Bridgestone and T12 at the PGA so, not unlike Cris Carter's "Everyone Need's a Fall Guy" campaign, he's trending in the right direction.

6. Shawn Stefani - $6,200

Our clearance rack pick and we're going the always suspect stats route with Stefani who is 15th in the All-Around ranking. He backs that up with a solid track record of ten top 25's in twenty-three tournaments. For $6,200, you can throw him in with three studs and hope he snags you a top 15 like he did at the Greenbrier and Wells Fargo. (Warning: Ricky Barnes potential). 

7. Charl Schwartzel - $8,200

This is something of a hunch pick. Sooner or later it's going to click for Schwartzel and he'll have a run similar to what he had on the European Tour at the end of 2012 into the beginning of 2013. His game looked really solid last week at the Wyndham as it did when he finished 7th at the U.S. Open. (But what about the three turds he dropped between those two events? . . . shhhhhh). 

8. Tony Finau - $7,300

If DJ liked Plainfield back in 2011, then Tony Finau should love it considering how he kills it off the tee (8th in driving distance). He's been rock solid since mid-May including strong finishes at the U.S. Open (T14), the PGA Championship (T10) and the Memorial (T8). You also have to pick at least one guy named Tony for all tournaments played in Jersey.

9. Zach Johnson - $8,100

Forget that he missed the cut at the PGA because you can't really judge a player after he's won a major, especially the way ZJ won that one. More importantly, he came into St. Andrews playing great having finished top six in three of his previous four tournaments. He'll get that back and at this price, they're practically giving him away.

10. Jordan Spieth - $12,600

You have to build at least one line-up a week around him because he's probably going to win two of the next four tournaments and do seven different things that will make you, me and his parents proud. 
Yeah Ryan, I'm not that jazzed about picking you either.

The Best of the Rest 

11. Jimmy Walker - $7,600
12. Kevin Kisner - $6,900
13. Jim Furyk - $8,800
14. David Lingmerth - $7,800
15. Ryan Moore - $7,600
16. Ben Martin - $6,800
17. Will Wilcox - $7,200
18. Brendan Steele - $7,100
19. Scott Piercy - $6,700
20. Paul Casey - $8,700

Footnote

* Of course I didn't pick him. Who would? Well at least one guy who teamed him up with Koepka, Pettersson, Schwartzel, Simpson and Singh to pull down $100K. That's some chaos theory level shit right there.

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