Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Fantasy Golf: The PGA Championship Preview

Since we covered most of the important stuff in the Draft Kings All-Value Top Ten, let's clean-up a few details with . . . 

FIVE BURNING QUESTIONS


Will Dustin Johnson Avenge the Kohler Disaster?


"Wait a minute. I do detect a pattern."
No. We all wondered about the lingering effect of the U.S. Open three-putt but he quieted that chatter by blowing the doors off the first two rounds of the British Open. Then the third round happened. DJ entered at -10 with a one shot lead over Danny Willett. He then proceeded to shoot 75 on a day when the leaders were shooting 64-68. It tied Paul Casey for the second highest round of the relatively wind free day* and I remember the on course announcer saying that he had hit wedge into nine of the greens and only produced one birdie. That round had the same effect on DJ that the MIG had on Cougar. Sure he came back and opened strong at the Bridgestone but his four round scores from St. Andrews were 65-69-75-75 and his scores from last week were 69-67-75-76.

Who Provides the Upset Potential?

Well first of all, Whistling Straits has not been kind to outsiders. In 2010, the players who finished in the top five were Martin Kaymer, Bubba Watson, Rory McIlroy, Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Steve Elkington and Jason Dufner. That's six major winners and you know who. In 2004, the top five guys were Vijay Singh, Chris DiMarco, Justin Leonard, Ernie Els and Chris Riley. That's three more major winners plus Chris DiMarco who finished top ten in three that year and then was runner-up to Tiger at the 2005 Masters. Riley was the closest thing to a party crasher and he played on the 2004 Ryder Cup so he was no slouch himself. The bottom line is that no one outside the top ten on the odds list below is going to win this thing. If you want a peripheral guy who might crack the top five, I like Robert Streb who's currently 5th in the FedEx Cup standings and coming off a 5th place finish at the Bridgestone. A 5th place finish this week is almost a lock because we all know that 5's always come in 3's.


How Will Rory's Wheel Hold-Up?


Only Rory knows how much it hurts so that's a tough one. Here is what I know about playing on a bum wheel**: (1) If it's your left (like Rory's), it can make you a bit flinchy about finishing your swing as aggressively as you might want to but that shouldn't bother him because he doesn't swing that hard (uh oh); (2) If there is still any swelling, it's going to be throbbing like a mofo by the last few holes everyday, especially on that 7,800 yard obstacle course; and (3) If you get a shot with an awkward lie that forces you to put all of your weight on it, good luck. It's that last one that would concern me because you know you're going to get some awkward lies at Whistling Straits. The bottom line is that working Rory into your wagers this week is a dicey proposition.


Will Jordan Spieth Win?


Yeah probably but that's no fun so let's make the case why he won't. The course is too long so he's going to struggle to keep up with guys like Bubba, DJ and Jason Day just like he did at Chambers . . . hmmmm . . . he's not going to be able to handle the wind and wacky bounces like he experienced at St. Andr . . . hmmmm . . . screw it. He's not going to win because . . .  


It's Finally Jason Day's Time?

Yes. He's got two solid wins this year to go with his T9th at the U.S. Open and T4th at the British. He kills it off the tee and hits his irons higher than just about anyone out there which makes Whistling Straits the perfect course for his game. It's his time. On to the picks and pretty ladies.

Not much subtlety to
this week's theme.

The PGA Championship Odds

1. Jordan Spieth - 6/1

2. Rory McIlroy - 10/1
3. Jason Day - 14/1
4. Dustin Johnson - 14/1
5. Bubba Watson - 16/1
6. Rickie Fowler - 20/1
7. Justin Rose - 20/1
8. Adam Scott - 25/1
9. Henrik Stenson - 28/1
10. Louis Oosthuizen - 22/1

The FGR PGA Championship Picks


1. Jason Day

2. Bubba Watson
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Justin Rose
5. Henrik Stenson
A couple of nice badgers.
6. Rory McIlroy
7. Robert Streb
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Zach Johnson
10. Brooks Koepka

The FGR One and Done Pick: Jason Day


The FGR Sleeper Pick: Robert Streb


Last Week’s Report Card: Airball

1. Adam Scott - T45th
2. Jordan Spieth - T10th
3. Rickie Fowler - T10th
4. Hideki Matsuyama - T37th
5. Keegan Bradley - T17th
6. Paul Casey - T17th
7. Marc Leishman - T33rd
8. Jason Day - T12th
Wisconsin's favorite
potential daughter in-law.
9. Sergio Garcia - T37th
10. Gary Woodland - T57th

One and Done Picks to Date

Hyundai: Kevin Streelman - $70,667
Sony: Chris Kirk - $42,280
Humana: Russell Knox - M/C
Phoenix: Hunter Mahan - $36,729
Farmers: Hideki Matsuyama - M/C

AT&T: Dustin Johnson - $281,067
Northern Trust: Jimmy Walker - $24,120
Honda: Keegan Bradley - M/C
WGC-Cadillac: Bubba Watson - $540,000
Valspar: Jim Furyk - $23,600
Palmer: Brooks Koepka – W/D
Texas Open: Matt Kuchar - $99,200
Houston Open: Louis Oosthuizen - M/C
Masters: Rory McIlroy - $480,000
Heritage: Patrick Reed - M/C
Zurich: Rickie Fowler - M/C
Match Play: Graeme McDowell - $49,385
And Robin Yount. I 
always liked Robin Yount.
Players: Henrik Stenson - $130,857
Wells Fargo: Webb Simpson - $624,800
Colonial: Zach Johnson - $78,780
Byron Nelson: Gary Woodland - $15,407
Memorial: Justin Rose - $669,600
FedEx St. Jude: Billy Horschel - $168,000
U.S. Open: Phil Mickelson - $23,822
Travelers: Brandt Snedeker - $147,200
Greenbrier: Kevin Kisner - $500,267
John Deere: Robert Streb - $84,600
British Open: Sergio Garcia - $305,878
Canadian Open: Charley Hoffman - $174,725
Quicken Loans: Justin Thomas - $242,875
Bridgestone: Adam Scott - $55,000

Season Total: $4,868,859

Footnotes


* Funny story. I have both DJ and Paul Casey on my season long team. Really funny. Like a Gallagher bit.


** This just in. Basketball, golf and middle age mix about as well as that Kahlua, Triple Sec and California Cooler cocktail you made in high school at 3:00 a.m. when the bar looked like an abandoned trailer park.