Sunday, January 6, 2013

The Wild Card Picks - Part 2

The middling prognostication effort continued on Saturday with a 1-1 start. Apparently I overrated Andy Dalton when I placed him in the tier above Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick because it looked like you could have replaced him with either one of those guys and gotten the same result if not a little better. I'm in the car heading to M&T Bank Stadium in exactly one hour so if this post ends somewhat abruptly, that's why.

Baltimore by 6.5 over Indianapolis

There will not be an empty
seat at kickoff today.
You know you have a boatload of emotional angles in effect when the Colts come to Baltimore for a playoff game and the fact that Indianapolis hijacked the team back in 1983 isn't even being discussed. We've got Chuckstrong versus the final home game for God's linebacker. Closer to home, we have the FGR versus FGK1 who jumped on the Colts' bandwagon at the age of six and, to his credit, never jumped off.* The current wager is Colts win, we listen to Gangnum Style on the ride home . . . Ravens win, it's disc two of Quadrophenia.

Enough of the peripheral story lines. Here are the relevant facts: (a) The Ravens have won at least one playoff game in all four seasons of the Flacco-Harbaugh era, (b) the Ravens were +9 in turnover margin this season and the Colts were -12, (c) the Colts have the league's 29th ranked run defense and (d) the Ravens have Ray Rice with fresh legs.** I actually wouldn't be surprised if this turns into a blowout because Ravens' stadium is the closest thing to the East coast version of CenturyLink Field in Seattle where it starts to get very hairy when the home team gets a lead. The poise of Andrew Luck will keep it from getting out of control but it will still be convincing.

Ravens - 27 . . . Colts - 17
___________________________________________________________________

I thought about doubling down this afternoon and making the trip down 95 for the second game but frankly I'm still feeling the effects of Thursday night's post-fantasy golf draft activities*** and a ten hour playoff football experience today would just be daring the flu to come kick my ass.

Seattle by 3 over Washington

The Redskins have had a great run but they only played two of the league's top ten scoring defenses all season (the Falcons and the Steelers) and they only averaged 14.5 points against them. This week they have to face #1. Then there are the multiple random factors in the Seahawks' favor. RG, III has a bum wheel. Russell Wilson has only thrown two picks in the last eight games. They get cornerback Brandon Browner back from his PED suspension. But with all of that being said, I'm taking the Redskins because as I sit here imagining this game unfolding, I just see them keeping it close with their running game and then RG, III finding a way to bring it home in the end. And with that, it's time to don the Jerkstore jersey and get this epic day started.

Redskins - 24 . . . Seahawks - 20

Endnotes

 . . . and one who would
wear this in public.
* When you're a dad who cares about sports a little too much, your first priority is to get the kids on board as fans and then you figure they'll come around to your favorite teams in due time. That just hasn't happened with FGK1 and frankly I have't pushed it for a couple of reasons: (a) I respect his sense of loyalty at such a young age (as opposed to FGK2 who is the consummate bandwagon jumper) and (b) a little rivalry in the house keeps things interesting. (By the way, the definition of a dad who "cares about sports a little too much" would be one who spends numerous unpaid hours every week writing a sports blog).

** Rice only carried the ball 16 times per game this season. Thank you Cam Cameron?

*** Fantasy golf draft night is currently the fuckin' Catalina Wine Mixer of the FGR's existence.

Last Week's Record: 5-11 . . . Season Record: 118-132-6