Thursday, October 4, 2012

The Week 5 NFL Picks - Part 1

It was another rough week at 7-8 but at least I'm trending in the right direction as that's my best performance so far this year (baby steps). I am taking some solace in the fact that Ron Jaworski, a former NFL quarterback who studies game tape all day and then picks games on the Tony Kornheiser Show, is 7-13. On the the other hand, the show also has a monkey from the National Zoo named Reginald pick three games a week and he's 10-2. So I'm ahead of a Polish quarterback from upstate New York but getting killed by a simian in captivity. Seems about right.

I'm getting very close to going into full Constanza mode by thoroughly analyzing my picks and then doing the opposite but we're going to stick with the "formula" for one more week.*

The Cards cheerleaders deserve
credit for distracting the players
from the guy under center.
Arizona by 1.5 over St. Louis: The Pick - Rams

I have absolutely no faith in Sam Bradford and the Rams. With that being said, we've reached the point of their run where I'm going to keep picking against the Cardinals until they lose because this simply can't continue. Five of their last thirteen games have gone to overtime and they've won them all. Sounds like the definition of "borrowed time" to me. Sooner or later the team is going to snap-out of this dream state and say, "holy shit, when did Kevin Kolb become our quarterback again?" That will be the beginning of the end.

Endnotes

* The "formula" works something like this: I write down all of the games with the spreads and in the split second before I move onto the next game, I make my pick based on a snap judgment. Then I go back later and attempt to justify my decision with some arbitrary stat or observation from past weeks. If you doubt this method based on its lack of scientific analysis, I would refer you back to the case of Jaws versus the monkey.